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141.
Sensitivity analysis of the two dimensional application of the Generic Ecological Model (GEM) to algal bloom prediction in the North Sea 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Harmful algae can cause damage to co-existing organisms, tourism and farmers. Accurate predictions of algal future composition and abundance as well as when and where algal blooms may occur could help early warning and mitigating. The Generic Ecological Model is an instrument that can be applied to any water system (fresh, transitional or coastal) to calculate the primary production, chlorophyll-a concentration and phytoplankton species composition. It consists of physical, chemical and ecological model components which are coupled together to build one generic and flexible modelling tool. In this paper the model has been analyzed to assess sensitivity of the simulated chlorophyll-a concentration to a subset of ecologically significant input factors. Only a small number of approaches could be considered as suitable for several reasons including the model complexity, engagement of numerous interacting parameters and relatively long time of a single simulation. Thus, sensitivity analysis has been carried out with the use of the Morris method and later enriched by the computation of the correlation ratios of the selected parameters on the model response at more than a few locations in the modelled area. The obtained results are in agreement with expert knowledge of the ecological processes in the North Sea and correspond well with local characteristics. 相似文献
142.
全球气候变暖导致的海平面加速上升已是不争的事实,其长期累积的结果将给沿海地区造成巨大威胁。利用层次聚类分析法、灰关联法、相关分析法等重点分析了海平面上升对珠江三角洲水位的影响。结果显示:海平面上升对珠江三角洲代表站的年平均水位和年最低水位的影响大于对年最高水位的影响;海平面上升对马口站和三水站水位的影响小于河床下切和径流的影响;海平面上升对珠江河口区水位的影响由三角洲深处向口门区有增强趋势。掌握海平面上升对水位的影响规律,对于河口地区的防灾减灾和水资源的合理开发利用具有重要的指导意义。 相似文献
143.
This study uses an interactionist approach to examine the moderating effect of follower trait positive affectivity (trait PA) on the relation between transformational leadership and both follower creative performance and organizational citizenship behaviors (OCB). On the basis of responses from 212 employees and their direct supervisors from the research and development department of a company in Mainland China, results support the hypothesized moderation effect. Specifically, the positive influence of transformational leadership on creative performance was significantly reduced for followers who were higher on trait PA (ΔR2 = .02, p < .05). The same pattern, in which followers' trait PA appeared to substitute for the influence of transformational leadership, generalized to the outcome of follower OCB as well (ΔR2 = .04, p < .01). We discussed theoretical and practical implications of these findings. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
144.
Gerhard Blickle James A. Meurs Andreas Wihler Christian Ewen Andrea Plies Susann Günther 《组织行为杂志》2013,34(8):1145-1164
Caveats concerning the ability of personality to predict job performance have been raised because of seemingly modest criterion‐related validity. The goal of the present research was to test whether narrowing the context via the type of job (i.e., jobs with complex task demands) and adding a social skill‐related moderator (i.e., political skill) would improve performance prediction. Further, along with political skill, the broad factor of personality demonstrated in prior research to have the strongest criterion validity (i.e., conscientiousness) was joined with a narrow construct closely related to openness to experience (i.e., learning approach) in a three‐way interactive prediction of supervisor‐rated task performance. With the employee–supervisor dyads among professionals, but not with the control group of non‐professional employees, task performance was predicted by the three‐way interaction, such that those high on all three received the highest performance ratings. Implications, strengths and limitations, and directions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
145.
付宜新 《中国环境管理干部学院学报》2013,(1):72-75
创业教育现在已成为我国高等职业教育中的重要一环。高职院校往往开设一门创业教育课程,试图通过该课程达到创业教育的目的,课程过分迷信"说教、讲授"的力量,而毕业生创业能力并没有得到预期的培养。通过借鉴CDIO工程教育模式,提出了创业教育应该以创业能力为培养目标,参照CDIO模式的12项标准进行模块化课程开发,通过CDIO循环提高学生的创业综合能力。 相似文献
146.
147.
基于因果模糊聚类法预测覆岩裂隙带高度研究 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
为了研究不同采高、煤层倾角、岩石抗压强度、岩层结构、采空区斜长、埋深等因素影响下采空区覆岩裂隙带高度发育规律,对收集的实测数据进行因果模糊聚类分类、分析,对各个类别,代入裂隙带高度接近均值的实测数据运算,获得各个因素对裂隙带高度影响合适的权重,进而建立对应的特征模糊集,并构造对应的三角模糊数,最终建立模糊预测模型。通过案例分析对模糊预测模型进行了验证,结果表明其误差范围为0.83-2.70m,满足工程应用的精度需求。 相似文献
148.
149.
Accounting for the mismanagement of tropical nearshore fisheries 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The underlying reason for the mismanagement of tropical nearshore fisheries is the implementation of policies and programs
based on Western models and approaches, coupled with an inability and/or unwillingness to consider non-Western alternatives
of empirically proven value. Such attitudes are embedded in donor and development agency behavior, and are demonstrated by
the temperate bias in conventional approaches to fisheries education and management, with a corresponding lack of understanding
of tropical milieux, and in the persistence of various prejudices. Adaptive Management, The Ecosystem Approach, Local Knowledge,
and Protected Areas are discussed from the perspectives of Western models and pre-existing Pacific Island systems as alternative
models. Given the parlous condition of the global environment and resources, the best non-Western pre-existing models and
Western approaches must be blended to provide sustainable solutions.
相似文献
Francis R. HickeyEmail: |
150.
采用二分图理论来研究区域内不同产业部门或排污企业之间对于环境容量的竞争关系,建立产业环境资源竞争网络模型,并从点权分布和加权集聚系数等方面加以分析,依据强关联矩阵来确定排污企业对于区域环境容量需求强度的聚类情况.在此基础上,进一步依据2010年广州开发区的排污企业数据进行了实证研究,分析了开发区产业现状,并对未来生态工业园区建设中产业的发展提出了指导性建议.采用复杂网络模型来分析企业环境外部性的方法,不仅较传统的经济度量方式有理论上创新,而且根据区域不同情况来构建模型,从复杂系统视角对环境管理体系进行分析,有利于改进环境管理方式. 相似文献